They have been studied thoroughly by experts, their tastes perceived to dictate the nation’s popular culture, their votes seen as essential to the success of any candidate who lines up with them on the issues.

For nearly 60 years, the Baby Boom generation has been the focus of endless analysis.

Now - when the front end of the boomer generation is beginning to file for Social Security benefits and head into retirement - the area is bracing for a generation of elderly whose number and diversity has never been encountered.

This glut of boomers transitioning into seniors - a phenomenon called the “Silver Tsunami” in 2002 by University of Nevada-Reno psychology professor Mary Maples - is anticipated to have a far-ranging impact on society at large, with an emphasis locally on health-related costs, employment and housing.

Born between 1946 and 1964, the boomers number about 76 million people today; the AARP estimated that each day last year, 8,000 people reached age 60. So it’s not surprising that as Warren County’s population has grown, the number of residents age 65 or older has increased proportionately.

Figures from the U.S. Census Bureau show that the county’s elderly population has remained consistent over the past two decades, hovering between 10.5 percent and 10.9 percent of the overall population.

Population projections, however, forecast that by 2030 as many as 26 percent of residents in the Barren River Area Development District will be at least 60 years old, according to the Kentucky Elder Readiness Initiative.

This possibility has caused several local agencies and experts to consider the ways in which the area should prepare for the boom of aging boomers.

Retirees at work

“If so much more of our population is going to be 60 or older in the next several years, who’s going to be our workforce?” said Debbie McCarty, director of aging services for BRADD.

McCarty is not the only person asking this question - a statewide survey sent to 9,600 Boomer households last summer as part of KERI intended to gather information about the top concerns of boomers and older adults.

More than 200 BRADD households responded to the survey and of those respondents, 46 percent of boomers consider retirement “a well-deserved reward for years of hard work,” while only 25.5 percent of those surveyed plan to work during retirement.

At the same time, 39 percent of boomers surveyed admitted that they never wanted to completely retire.

Jim Hizer, president and CEO of the Bowling Green Area Chamber of Commerce, said that the area should be preparing to accommodate more older workers who are either returning to the work force or deferring retirement.

“A slowing national economy actually delays the onslaught of mass Baby Boomer retirements everyone is anticipating,” Hizer said. “I would anticipate that some of the Baby Boomer retirements will be offset by continued growth in productivity.”

Healthy growth

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control in 2005 placed average U.S. life expectancy at nearly 78 years, and the Baby Boomers have been recognized in several studies as healthier and more active than preceding generations.

As that generation ages, though, the health care industry will have to adapt.

“We’re getting ready to enter the time period where Baby Boomers are exiting the work force and we have to ask whether we have the personnel to care for these people,” said Mark Marsh, CEO of Greenview Regional Hospital.

The competition among hospitals for primary care physicians had been fierce for many years, with several graduates vying for a handful of jobs, according to Marsh.

Now, the dynamics have reversed, with fewer people looking at a career in primary care - making recruitment of physicians more difficult, especially for rural hospitals.

Instead, there is a groundswell of interest in practitioners of hospital-based medicine, who help manage patients through their stay in the hospital.

“Hospitalist is the fastest growing ‘subspecialist’ in the business and there are 15,000 hospitalists nationwide,” Marsh said. “These are the orchestrators of patient care.”

Anne Leonard, chief nursing director for Greenview, said the aging boomer population may exacerbate a nationwide nursing shortage.

Several studies reflect Leonard’s concern: Last November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projected that 1 million new and replacement nurses would be needed by 2016; Leonard also cited a study indicating that the nursing shortage could reach as high as 400,000 in 2028.

“We try to recruit and retain the nurses we have, but many hospitals can’t keep up with the demand,” Leonard said.

Marsh said the nursing shortage is felt more prevalently in smaller hospitals serving rural communities, but that larger hospitals in cities are not necessarily immune to the shortage.

The hospital is embarking on a long-term recruitment plan to keep an adequate number of physicians and nurses on staff for the next 10 years.

Greenview has seen an increase in orthopedic surgical procedures, as an active generation of boomers elects to have knees and hips replaced in order to stay active and those suffering from obesity also require surgery to replace degenerative joints.

“Our orthopedic volume went up 30 percent in the last year,” Marsh said.

Health care costs are a concern for hospital administrators as well as patients. The rising costs of health care and a high volume of patients on Medicare and Medicaid led Marsh to make a high-octane analogy.

“If it costs you $50,000 to produce a Corvette that you’re selling for $40,000, you can’t keep producing Corvettes and hope to make up your deficit,” Marsh said. “Costs are rising faster than what you’re getting reimbursed.”

A generation speaking out

Dana Bradley, professor of gerontology at Western Kentucky University, said that unlike past generations who were cast aside socially as they aged, the Baby Boomers will remain a strong voice, their sheer number alone making them a demographic worth being wooed by political candidates.

Young adults may have cachet as a target of advertisers, but the accumulated wealth, influence and size of the boomer population means that profit-minded marketers will continue tailoring many of their products to boomers, Bradley said.

“This generation is so large and so vocal, and they have brought attention to the idea that aging is just a fact of life,” Bradley said. “In the past, when people got older the rest of society tended to forget about them, but what a waste of money and talent it would be to do that to people who are still vital contributors to our society.”

Hizer said that the southcentral Kentucky area has become a magnet for relocating elderly, bringing new dollars into the local tax base.

Agreeable weather, cultural and recreational activities and overall quality of life are prompting the first wave of retiring boomers to spend their golden years here, according to Hizer.

“Retirees are locating here and bringing their pensions and 401Ks,” Hizer said. “I think southcentral Kentucky is better prepared than most communities, in spite of the fact that we really haven’t enticed that segment of the population to move here.”