We have finally arrived at nomination day, heading down the stretch of the longest Oscar season yet.
There should be plenty of surprises when the nominations are announced Monday morning, but then again the surprise could be lack of surprises. With the awards precursors all over the map picking the final nominees won't be easy, but I might as well take a shot.
Here is who I expected to be nominated in the six major categories:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father and News of the World could sneak in, but recent history suggests only eight or nine films not the 10 max allowed (that changes next year). If either sneak in, One Night in Miami and Sound of Metal might be in the most trouble.
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Aaron Sorkin, Trial of the Chicago 7
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
All five received DGA nominations and while history suggests one will get snubbed, I'll stick with these. Regina King, Darius Marder or even Paul Greengrass could sneak in.
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Steven Yeun, Minari
I have this sneaky suspicion that Mikkelson will be one of the big surprises Monday morning. That meant a tough elimination and with Mank's momentum waning I opted to leave out Gary Oldham. Tahir Rahim could also surprise.
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Four appear to be locks, leaving one slot. I'll give it to Day, who won at the Golden Globes, but Amy Adams, Sophia Loren or Rosamund Pike could sneak in.
Best Supporting Actor
Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Jared Leto, The Little Things
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
Again four seem set, with Leto the shaky one. He already has a Globe and SAG nod so I will reluctantly stick with him over Paul Raci or Bill Murray or the one I am rooting for the most Bo Burnham.
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
If you get all five right here congrats ahead of time. This is not only wide open with no clear frontrunner, but even the five that will make it seem shaky. Amanda Seyfried, Ellen Burstyn, Dominique Fishback or Helena Zengal all had a shot.